Hopefully we don’t have to find out.
UNA lost 38-36 in 2OT at Top-10 Illinois State (which is only 3-2, but those losses are to Oklahoma & North Dakota State, so pretty excusable), and came back from being down 17-0 in that one, so they’ve shown some resiliency.
On the flipside, they gave up 30 unanswered to SEMO which is 1-4 with UNA being the only win, and SEMO lost by 24 to 1-5 UT Martin – which has lost its other 5 games by an average of … 24 points.
So I guess the takeaway there is that anything can happen.
I think it is encouraging that UNA is 121st (of 126) in the FCS in Passing Yards Allowed/Game at 308.8.
Also encouraging is that they are 123rd in Punt Return Yards, with 6 returns for a total of 2 yards. A far cry from what we saw at Lamar – which leads the FCS in punt return yards this season and beat Nicholls with an 88-yd punt return TD late in the 4th quarter last weekend.
They are also 117th in penalty yards per game at 78.6, about 15 more per game than the Bears.
So there are some things, statistically speaking, that look pretty promising.
There are a couple areas that could be of concern, too. UNA is 15th in rushing offense at 202 yards per game, the Bears are 74th in run defense at 167.5 per game… though that’s 241 per game & 5.7 per carry against Mizzou, Tarleton & Sac St., and only 94.3 per game & 3.2 per carry against UAPB, Lamar and Utah Tech. And, UNA is dead even in turnover margin for the season while the Bears are -9.
As is the case I think for pretty much every game the rest of the way – it’s winnable, but it’s not a gimme. I’d feel better about it in Conway, but definitely not insurmountable in Florence. I think we win, but I would be pleasantly surprised if it’s a rout.
