It would have been pretty close to a 100% chance if we hadn't loss to to EKU that we would have made the playoffs at least as an at-large-bid (if not auto bid as UAC champs). As it stands now, If we can win out, we can still make the playoffs but not as confidently (I'd guess closer to a 65% chance). SUU is receiving votes and Tarleton is ranked in the top 13 in both polls so wins over both would look really good to the FCS selection committee. I'm torn though between which team I think needs to win the ACU/Tarleton game to give UCA the better chance of making the playoffs. I'm leaning towards wanting a Tarleton victory over ACU so that they'll be ranked even higher when we play them and hopefully get the win.
But but but….EKU could still get the nod over us if they win out. There is a quite plausible scenario where UCA, EKU, ACU, and Tarleton all end the season 8-4. EKU, ACU, and Tarleton would all end the season 6-2 in UAC play and tied for 1st, Tarleton would have head to head tie breaker over ACU, ACU would have head to head tie breaker over EKU, and EKU would have the head to head tie breaker over Tarleton. If that happens, I don't know what metric is considered next to break the tie and crown one of them as UAC champ and get the auto bid. So whomever isn't crowned UAC champ would then be in the pot with UCA for possible at large bid.
But with all that said, then there are 3 teams left who basically look pretty similar in terms of ranked wins and likely SOS. It certainly starts to get confusing at that point and UCA would be at the mercy of the committee. I don't see 4 teams getting in from the UAC. At best 3, with UCA being odd man out under the scenario I played out. But there's more. If EKU ca lose one of its last two games, they'll finish 7-5 and will most likely eliminate themselves from the chaos/confusion of which 2 non UAC auto bid teams should get in along with the actual UAC auto bid /conference champ.
I end in saying none of it matters if we don't beat SUU. So……..GO BEARS!!!!!! I'll take a win of any kind.
